A STRATEGY OF WEAKNESS – AT 9:11 A.M. ET:  The Hill has a fascinating piece this morning on some thinking inside the Republican Party – that sometimes is a contradiction in terms – about strategy for 2012.  This is not the kind of thinking that wins elections:

The GOP presidential field has weakened in recent weeks as Republicans seem to conclude they’d stand a better chance of winning the White House in 2016.

Several strategists and observers say the potential candidates are weighing their options and deciding it’s best to wait until the next cycle, when President Obama is ineligible to run and Vice President Biden, who will turn 74 that November, isn't expected to seek the Democratic nomination.

The heroism, the sense of excitement, the seizing of the moment!  Gee, I'd like to see just one of those things.  But it's the GOP, after all.  Sometimes their major exercise is yawning. 

The downside to waiting, of course, is that the 2016 Republican primary could be more competitive on account of the openness of the race.

“It’s tough fighting an incumbent president,” said Republican strategist Tyler Harber. “The people who make significant runs for office wait for when it’s an open seat.”

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.  Do these people remember a fella named Reagan and an incumbent president named Carter?  Reagan turned Carter into an ex-.  And, oh, remember a guy named Clinton in 1992, and an incumbent named George H.W. Bush?  Another ex- created. 

Obama is vulnerable.  Yes, the odds are with him, but odds can be turned around. 

South Dakota Sen. John Thune, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio have ruled themselves out of the race, citing bad timing, a lack of desire and home-state commitments.

Nonsense.  I believe that Rubio, in particular, can jump right back in.

Republicans have just come off one of the major electoral triumphs in recent political history, and some of them are already talking defeat for 2012.  Now do you see why Ronald Reagan had to fight the GOP establishment every step of the way?  Some of these contented souls are not only asleep at the switch, they don't even know where the switch is.

In the latter half of the 20th century, only two presidents have suffered defeat while seeking a second term. So the odds of winning the GOP nomination and unseating the president are slim, despite some difficult poll numbers for Obama.

How about a little examination of that statement?  Truman did not seek reelection in 1952, although he was legally eligible.  Eisenhower ran and won a second term, but Ike was a political giant, essentially unbeatable.  President Kennedy, tragically, never got to run for a second term.  Lyndon Johnson bowed out in 1968, not running.  Nixon ran and won.  Ford, already president, ran for a full term in 1976 and was defeated.   Carter, running for his second term in 1980, was defeated.   The great Reagan easily won a second term in 1984 against the dull Mondale.  As noted above, George H.W. Bush was defeated for a second term.  Brilliant campaigner and so-so president, Bill Clinton, won his second term against next-in-line candidate Bob Dole in 1996. 

That history is not discouraging for a good challenger in 2012.  Wake up, boys.  Get out of our way.

February 25, 2011